A Possible Ceasefire… and a Masters Pick

It has been a little over two weeks since our last update on the conflict in Iran. Not because nothing was happening, but because events were happening too quickly for the written word, unless you count X (formerly Twitter) as the written word.

Since our last publication on March 25^th, the market is… wait for it, almost exactly where it was on the morning of March 25^th, with only about a 4.5% drop and recovery in between, all within two weeks.[i]

With all the headlines, all the volatility, and unfortunately all the real human cost of war, the S&P is down 3.05% year-to-date as of this writing (before market open on April 8^th). Depending on when you read this, much of that loss could be erased. The S&P is poised to open almost 3% higher, eliminating much of the loss for 2026 due to (as of now) the agreed-upon ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

This ceasefire, negotiated with the help of Pakistan, is supposed to halt all military action for a period of two weeks while the sides negotiate in-depth for lasting peace. It came just hours before President Trump’s 8 P.M. Tuesday night deadline, where he had promised that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” and strikes would target Iran’s bridges and power plants. The success of the ceasefire hinges on Iran’s promise of the free flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. As we all know by now, this is key to the passage of oil and gas out of the Persian Gulf. There are reportedly between 800-1,000 ships waiting to clear the Strait. (Side note: I am okay if I don’t hear about the Strait of Hormuz for a while.) Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail, meaningful peace talks will come about, and markets will calm.

The current Iran conflict has lasted approximately 40 days and has seen the oil and stock markets swing wildly during this time. Much of the movement has been driven by fear of escalation or hope of a deal, often based on rumors as much as facts. During times like these, it is hard to know what information is real and credible and what is rumor or the musings of a President. I think back to what I wrote in the first post we made regarding the conflict on March 2^nd: sometimes doing nothing is doing something. In client accounts, we have not made drastic moves over the last five weeks.

If you have been working with Persium Group for any length of time, you might have heard the phrase “time in the market, not timing the market.” Staying in the market, even in times of great volatility, is paramount for long-term success. Having a plan and following it allows you to look past short-term volatility.

I really hope that this is close to the last in my series on the Iran conflict. While I sincerely appreciate those who have reached out to say they enjoy reading these updates, they are not easy, but it never is when the topics are war and politics, and the information changes more quickly than we can publish.

To end on a more fun note, I mentioned in a previous update my excitement for the upcoming NCAA tournament. If you followed it and know me, you will know my excitement was short-lived when my beloved Georgia Bulldogs did… well, not good. Well, we are now a day away from another one of the great sporting events of the year (my wife says I use this phrase way too often), The Masters golf tournament in Augusta, GA. If you are a golf fan, you know just how special this week is. I am about to enjoy Spring Break with my kids and watch a lot of golf. Now this is very brave of me, but if you have read this long, you get my pick for the 2026 Masters winner: Xander Schauffele.

Please reach out with any questions or with your own Masters predictions.

Will

Disclosure: The opinions in the preceding commentary are as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee the facts cited are accurate or complete. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice regarding a particular investment or the markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. Investors should consult their financial advisor on the strategy best for them. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[i] https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/chart